For example...
"What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it." - prologue xxWhich universe is he arriving from? I can't disagree with the comment in general, but who do you know that believes in long term forecasting?
I object, because who is the "our" here? The only promoters of such forecasts are those that derive power from such things. The Ag Secretary "believes" in the crop forecasts because he is foolish to ignore them - especially when they're right (even if only by chance).
Then he makes ludicrous statements such as proclaiming the Internet to be a Black Swan. That's about like saying the hammer was a chance invention? Those of us who watched the internet's growth, encouraged it, debugged and developed it's pieces weren't thinking "I wonder if this is cool?"
Just because the internet suddenly appeared in your life doesn't mean it was a charm springing out of the forehead of Zeus. No more than the invention of the car, or the airplane. They are patently obvious to those in the trenches.
But I will give you a real Black Swan of the tech world... Jeff Han's Ted Talk on multitouch interfaces:
2 comments:
As someone who recommended the book, let me give a few things in its defense:
"who do you know that believes in long term forecasting?"
This is an interesting point. Your answer is correct--almost nobody. People will doubt them all over the place---and then in the next breath act as if those forecasts are certainly true. There is no uncertainty taken into account in making decisions.
"Then he makes ludicrous statements such as proclaiming the Internet to be a Black Swan."
The point is not that the internet is a "chance invention." It is that very few people predicted its importance at the best time to take advantage of it, financially speaking. For the internet, this is probably the beginning of the 90s (this is not to say that those like you in the trenches couldn't see it--it's that ya'll were the only ones able to see it). Once its worth became clear, the opportunity was lost.
"But I will give you a real Black Swan of the tech world... Jeff Han's Ted Talk on multitouch interfaces"
Absolutely.
Actually, now that I'm a few more pages in I'm starting to enjoy it. I think those examples just rattle me a bit.
As a security profession, I deal with risk analysis regularly. I am perhaps a bit jaded in my views of the possibilities.
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