Monday, January 19, 2009

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Words and actions

Found some choice quotes and writings from the Founders today.  Their public support of Christianity is surprising given the context in which we read of them today.  Here's a couple of interesting quotes.

"The Christian religion," Adams said," as I understand it, is the brightness of the glory and the express portrait of the character of the eternal, self-existent, independent, benevolent, all-powerful, and all-merciful Creator, Preserver and Father of the universe, the first good, the first perfect, and the first fair. It will last as long as the world. Neither savage nor civilized man, without a revelation, could have discovered or invented it." " Religion and virtue are the only foundations, not only of republicanism and of all free governments, but of social felicity under all governments and in all the combinations of human society. Science, liberty, and religion are the choicest blessings of humanity: without their joint influence no society can be great, flourishing, or happy." - John Adams

"I am sure there never was a people who had more reason to acknowledge a Divine interposition in their affairs, than those of the United States; and I should be pained to believe that they had forgotten that agency which was so often manifested during our Revolution, or that they failed to consider the omnipotence of that God who is alone able to protect them." - George Washington

Sunday, January 04, 2009

The Black Swan...

So I've begun to read "The Black Swan" and while I've heard lots of positive comments I'm kind of taking a negative attitude to the book.  Admittedly I'm only a few pages in... but the snideness is a bit rattling.

For example...
"What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it." - prologue xx
Which universe is he arriving from?  I can't disagree with the comment in general, but who do you know that believes in long term forecasting?

I object, because who is the "our" here?  The only promoters of such forecasts are those that derive power from such things.  The Ag Secretary "believes" in the crop forecasts because he is foolish to ignore them - especially when they're right (even if only by chance).

Then he makes ludicrous statements such as proclaiming the Internet to be a Black Swan.  That's about like saying the hammer was a chance invention?  Those of us who watched the internet's growth, encouraged it, debugged and developed it's pieces weren't thinking "I wonder if this is cool?"

Just because the internet suddenly appeared in your life doesn't mean it was a charm springing out of the forehead of Zeus.  No more than the invention of the car, or the airplane.  They are patently obvious to those in the trenches.

But I will give you a real Black Swan of the tech world... Jeff Han's Ted Talk on multitouch interfaces:

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Interesting news...


Thought I'd share a few tidbits of news that have some significance for me.  A lot for a single post - but I think it points towards a much more troubling future, though hopefully I'm wrong.

First, the Vatican has divorced itself from Italian law.  I think the writing was on the wall but it's interesting under-the-radar news nonetheless.

Next, Global Warming may or may not be true - but the trend is teetering towards a cooling period.  Sunspots are at a historic low and point towards a period of cool weather.  This is bad news for crop growers, energy & heating costs, and local governments.

I don't have a news story for this one, but it's been well circulated that Venezuela needs a rather hefty price per barrel ($42 IIRC) and all signs are pointing towards a meltdown there.  In fact the lunacy of energy prices forebodes a troubling situation economically the world over.  Don't call it deflation yet - but if it starts quacking like a duck who knows where this is going?

Lastly the insanity of mortgage re-pricing is reaching lunacy as well. Perhaps the moon really does drive people crazy - being at an all time peak in size this last month.  Casey Mulligan posts the news that if you want to save money on your mortgage - simply WORK LESS!!

So in other words, buy a good coat, work less, and buy the '69 TBird you've always wanted.  You'll make out better than us schlubs apparently.